Assessing Institutional Capacities for Climate‑Change‑Driven Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in Skardu, the Karakoram and Himalayan Regions of Pakistan

Abstract

Like other vulnerable areas, Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) (a heaven on earth) is in northern Pakistan and is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its position in the Himalayan, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush (HKH) mountain ranges. The average temperature in these regions has risen by 0.10ºC per decade from 1901 to 2014 [4]. The melting rate of glaciers also increased with the increase in average temperature. In Himalayan regions, more than 67% of glaciers are melting at an exponential rate [5]. Due to the high frequency of glaciers melting, the frequencies and consequences of natural disaster events have been intensified in GB [6]. The United Nations Development Program confirmed thirty-three lakes in the northern part of Pakistan, which are highly vulnerable sites for GLOF [7]. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMD) surveyed 250 villages in GB and concluded that 46% of villages are facing different types of natural hazard events, and the most frequent and dominant natural hazardous events are landslides, earthquakes, flash floods, soil erosion, rockfall, and glacial outburst floods [8].

Considering the “Hyogo Framework for Risk Actions (HFA) 2005-2015” and the “Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030,” the government of Pakistan introduced various measures for better management of disasters and risks. In 2006, the government of Pakistan introduced the National Disaster Management Ordinance 2006 [9] and in 2010, the ordinance was converted into the National Disaster Management Act 2010 [10]. After this act, the institutional framework of disaster management was restructured and devolved disaster-related policy formulation and implementation power to the provincial and district levels [11].

Following the National Disaster Management Act 2010, the Gilgit-Baltistan government introduced the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Act 2017, establishing the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA), which now operates at both provincial and district levels, with offices in all ten districts [6]. GBDMA laid a new institutional framework in Gilgit Baltistan to strengthen disaster risk management and disaster risk reduction measures and initiatives [12]. However, the consequences and damages from disaster events are not reduced significantly. According to Dawn News (2022)  in Gilgit Baltistan, more than 47 flash flood events were reported, in which 60 bridges, 75 irrigation channels, more than 700 houses were damaged, and 7 casualties [13]. The estimated internally displaced people were 50,000, and the economic losses were Rs 10 billion [14]. These damages and losses from the 2022 flood raise serious questions about the current institutional framework of disaster management in Gilgit-Baltistan.

Skardu, one of the most disaster-prone districts in Gilgit-Baltistan, faces frequent natural hazards, raising concerns about the effectiveness of existing Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) frameworks. Despite the presence of policies and institutional mechanisms, their implementation and overall efficiency remain uncertain. Assessing institutional performance in DRR is crucial to identifying gaps, addressing challenges, and enhancing resilience. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of institutional frameworks in disaster management and the key challenges encountered during implementation. This study explores the following research questions:

• How effectively is the current institutional framework implementing Disaster Risk Reduction measures in Skardu?
• What key barriers do institutions face during the implementation of Disaster Risk Reduction measures in Skardu?