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G. 2085

Global Research journal of

Natural Science & Technology

(GRJNST)

Volume: 04 - Issue 3 (2026), 2085

ISSN P: 2790-7643 ISSN E: 2790-7651

www.grjnst.net

https://doi.org/10.53762/grjnst.04.03.06

Impacts of Climate Change on Cotton

(Gossypium hirsutum

- A Global and

L. ): Growth, Yield and Resilience Strategies

Pakistan Perspective

Received: 02 Apr 2026il Accepted: 25 April 2026 Published: 11 May 2026

Rashida Bibi

Department of Plant Breeding and Genetics, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Pakistan

rashidabaloch88@gmail.com

Habib Ullah (Corresponding Author)

Department of Plant Breeding and Genetics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

habibmengal915@gmail.com

Ali Nawaz

Department of Plant Pathology, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Pakistan

alinawazsumalani212@gmail.com

Haji Manzoor Ahmad

Department of Sustainable Technology and Environment, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley Campus,

United Kingdom

hajimanzoor972@gmail.com

Khatir Ali

Department of Plant Breeding and Genetics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

khatirali34521@gmail.com

Abdulrehman Niazi

Department of Plant Breeding and Genetics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

abdulrehmanniazi493@gmail.com

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G. 2085

Sana Ullah

Department of Plant Pathology, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Pakistan

sanaullahhussain2003@gmail.com

Abstract: Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is an important fiber crop which plays a vital

role in industries, economics and rural livelihoods, globally and especially in Pakistan. But

current climate change is increasingly becoming a threat to cotton productivity due to

increased temperatures, variability in rainfall, droughts, flooding, salinity and increased

infestation of pest and diseases. Heat and drought stress affects the rate of photosynthesis,

maturation of the plant, boll retention and fiber development with significant yield and

quality losses. Physiological instability and oxidative damage are exacerbated by combined

stresses. Climate variability also increases the occurrence of key pests and diseases such as

pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella) and Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCuV) with

devastating consequences to crop yields, particularly in South Asia. New opportunities are

provided by recent progress in biotechnology such as CRISPR-Cas genome editing,

genomic selection, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and multi-omics approaches

to develop cotton cultivars that are more climate-resilient, have enhanced stress resistance

and have more stable fiber properties. Besides that, climate-smart agriculture (CSA)

techniques like deficit irrigation, conservation agriculture, integrated pest management,

agroforestry and digital agriculture are gaining increasing significance as adaptation

strategies. This review provides a summary of the physiological, agronomic, molecular,

ecological and socio-economic climate change effects on cotton at the global and Pakistan

perspectives and integrated approaches for sustainable and climate resilient cotton

production. This work was supported by the Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Science

and Technology, under the program Climate Resilient Agriculture with a seed grant from

the ASL. This work was funded by Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Science and

Technology under the program Climate Resilient Agriculture, with a seed grant from the

ASL.

Keywords: industries, economics, productivity, rainfall, droughts, flooding, salinity,

Cotton Leaf Curl Virus, CRISPR-Cas, genome, agronomic, molecular, ecological.

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1. Introduction

Cotton (Gossypium spp.) is one of the main fiber crops of the world and has a significant

importance in the textile industry, agricultural trade and rural livelihood. In 2023, the

global cotton crop totaled over 25 million metric tons, with the top producers being

China, India, Pakistan, Brazil and the United States. Cotton is a strategic cash crop that

is grown by almost 1.7 million farming households in Pakistan and plays a prominent role

in the agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), foreign exchange earnings and textile

industry which is one of the largest industries in Pakistan (Mehmood et al., 2024). Cotton

also has a role in food and feed systems via cottonseed oil and livestock feed (by-products).

Cotton, an important crop, is more and more affected by climate change and

environmental variability. With the rise in temperature, irregular rainfall, droughts, floods,

salinity and increasing pest and disease pressure, sustainable cotton production is a major

constraint for cotton cultivation in all parts of the world (Shahzadi et al., 2024). Climate

change has exacerbated the impacts of extreme weather events, especially in South Asia,

where the growing areas of cotton lack adequate water, soil quality and tolerate high

temperature stress. The climatic changes lower productivity yields and fiber quality and

endanger farmers livelihoods and the sustainability of cotton production systems.

Heat stress is one of the more serious climatic stresses that restricts growth and

productivity of cotton. The temperature range that is best for cotton is from 21 to 30 °C,

but temperatures above 35 °C during flowering and boll development greatly affect lint

yield and reproductive success (Han et al., 2023). High temperatures limit photosynthetic

activity, accelerate leaf senescence, alter assimilate partitioning, cause flower drop and

lower boll drop which leads to loss of pollen viability (Zafar et al., 2018). Experimental

results show that for every 1 °C increase above optimum conditions, there is a decrease in

lint yield by almost 110 kg ha⁻¹ (Yousaf et al., 2023). Likewise, drought stress can cause

disruption of physiological and biochemical processes that affect boll retention, seed

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cotton production and fiber quality such as the interference of photosynthesis, nutrient

transport, fiber elongation, etc. (Poffenbarger et al., 2023; Ul-Allah et al., 2021).

The effects are even more severe when heat is combined with drought. The combined

effect of the stresses helps to increase oxidative damage, membrane instability and

metabolic disruptions which result in serious reproductive failure and reduction in lint

quality (Zafar et al., 2023). Moreover, climate change is also contributing to more extreme

rainfall events and flooding, especially in countries that experience mostly monsoon rains

like Pakistan. The waterlogging causes limitations in root respiration, nutrient uptake and

hormonal balance which ultimately restricts growth and yield formation (Beegum et al.,

2023). The devastating floods in 2022 in Pakistan also exposed the fragility of cotton

production systems with respect to the alternating drought–flood climate change cycles

(Rathore and Khuwaja, 2022).

Climate variability also affects the dynamics of pests and diseases in cotton farms. The

survival, reproduction and spread of insect pests like pink bollworm, whiteflies, thrips and

leafhoppers are increased under the increasing temperatures (Shahzad et al., 2022). The

climatic conditions are favorable for the transmission of Cotton Leaf Curl Virus

(CLCuV) which is one of the most devastating viral pathogens of cotton in South Asian

countries (Ali et al., 2019). These stresses add up to production risks and economic losses

in Pakistan, especially for the smallholder population in the provinces of Punjab and

Sindh.

New tools in the biotechnology and molecular breeding toolbox offer hope for increasing

the climate resilience of cotton. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS), genomic

selection, transcriptomics, metabolomics and CRISPR-Cas genome editing technologies

are used to accurately identify and manipulate key stress responsive genes that control heat

tolerance, drought resilience, osmotic adjustment and fiber-quality stability (Luqman et

al., 2025). Meanwhile, climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approaches such as deficit

irrigation, conservation agriculture, integrated pest management (IPM), agroforestry and

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digital agriculture technologies are gaining traction as adaptation solutions to the impacts

of climate change (Asma et al., 2025).

The present review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the available recent

evidence at global and Pakistan specific level on the physiological, agronomic, socio-

economic and molecular impacts of climate change on crop management systems of

cotton. It also underscores the need for diversified adaptations and mitigation measures

using biotechnology, climate-smart agronomy, digital agriculture and policy measures to

enhance the resilience and sustainable cotton production in future climate scenarios.

2. Impacts of the climate change on the growth and production

Climate stresses such as heat, drought, flooding, salinity, pest attack, soil degradation and

other disasters can adversely impact cotton crops and crop quality and productivity,

creating a high vulnerability for cotton production systems. These stresses can cause

physiological, biochemical and molecular changes that hinder cotton development and

productivity. Heat and drought are among the several stresses, which are thought to be

the most important limiting factors for cotton yield in the world's large cotton-producing

regions (Arshad et al., 2021). The multi-faceted potential relationship between climatic

stress and cotton physiology, productivity and socio-economic sustainability are

summarized in Figure 1.

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2.1 Heat Stress

Cotton is a thermophilic crop which is best grown between 21°C and 30°C; but

temperatures over 35°C during flowering and boll development will adversely affect

reproductive success and lint production (Han et al., 2023). The heat stress causes

decrease in photosynthesis, disintegration of chloroplast membranes, premature aging of

leaves and decreases assimilate flow to reproductive organs. The low viability of pollen

and higher drop of flowers lead to low boll retention and loss of yield (Zafar et al., 2018).

The experimental studies show that lint yield (Yousaf et al., 2023) can be significantly

affected by raising the temperature up to 1 °C from the optimum. Heat stress also impacts

fiber development by affecting the biosynthesis of cellulose and the organization of the

cytoskeleton which leads to shorter fibers with a lower tensile strength and uniformity

(Jareczek et al., 2023). In Pakistan and Australia, significant impacts on boll formation

and lint yield due to heat waves during flowering stages have been reported (Bista et al.,

2025; Schwenk et al., 2022).

In recent years, scientists have been focusing on pathways which are heat-sensitive and

using biotechnology to increase thermotolerance in cotton. The application of genomic

selection, transcriptomic analysis and CRISPR-based genome editing are helping to

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identify genes that respond to stress, including membrane stabilization, antioxidant

defense and reproductive tolerance to high temperatures.

2.2 Drought Stress

Another significant limitation of cotton production is drought, especially in the arid and

semi-arid areas. In periods of water deficiency, leaf growth rate, nutrient transport,

photosynthetic rate and plant growth rate (biomass) are all decreased (Poffenbarger et al.,

2023). A reduction in water supply due to drought leads to stomatal closure to retain

water, but it also reduces fibre growth and carbon uptake. The combined action of heat

× drought stress causes greater oxidative damage, membrane instability, disruption of

metabolic pathways and reproductive failure and lint quality degradation (Zafar et al.,

2023).

Flowering and boll filling drought results in significant boll drop, seed cotton production

and fiber quality parameters like micronaire, fiber length and tensile strength (Ul-Allah et

al., 2021). In Pakistan, seed cotton yield losses up to 50% have been observed in some

areas due to drought stress and it was reported that there was a 37.9% lint yield loss under

drought stress for 60 days in China (Schwenk et al., 2022; Poffenbarger et al., 2023). In

response to these challenges, breeding programmes have been developed to improve root

architecture, osmotic adjustment, water-use efficiency and mechanisms of antioxidant

defence, with the help of genomic selection and the manipulation of genes by CRISPR.

2.3 Excess rainfall and flooding

Consequences of excess rainfall and flooding are also being a huge challenge for cotton

production, especially in monsoon dominated areas. Waterlogging leads to hypoxic soils

which affects root respiration, nutrient uptake and hormonal imbalance, which in turn

results in growth inhibition and reduced yield potential (Beegum et al., 2023). The

anatomical characteristics of cotton are not well adapted to long duration of waterlogging,

making it very sensitive to waterlogging stress.

The floods in Sindh, Pakistan in 2022 revealed the sensitivity of cotton systems to extreme

rainfall events resulting in significant losses in cotton system and also in the expected

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harvest of cotton (Rathore and Khuwaja, 2022). Flooding causes postponement of

sowing/transplanting, reduction in fibre development time and vulnerability to

pest/disease (Haider et al., 2025). Recent research in biotechnology is directed towards

better understanding hypoxia-responsive pathways, root engineering and rhizosphere

microbes with positive effects on waterlogging tolerance of cotton.

2.4 Phenological Shifts

The phenology of cotton is greatly affected by climate warming, as evidenced by the

increased rate of flowering, boll development and maturity. Rising temperature speeds up

heat-unit accumulation, reducing crop duration and putting reproductive stages at risk of

terminal heat and water stress (Zanre and Combary, 2024). Earlier flowering can minimise

late season pest damage, but also mean increased exposure to heatwaves during flowering.

In Pakistan, often there are mismatches between the phenology of crops and favorable

atmospheric conditions due to irregular distribution of rainfall and changes in the sowing

schedule (Syed et al., 2022).

The genetic and transcriptomic characterization of flowering-time and stress responses is

advancing in recent years and enhancing the knowledge of how to make more climate-

resilient cultivars with optimal phenological strategies.

2.5 Biotic Pressures and Soil Degradation

Pest dynamics is greatly affected by climate warming in cotton systems. An increase in

temperature can boost the survival, reproduction and geographic distribution of insect

pests like pink bollworm, whiteflies and leafhoppers (Syed et al., 2022). Multiple pest

generations per year may occur with warm weather and these may overlap with the

reproductive stages of cotton. A rise in humidity and shifts in precipitation also tend to

amplify pest outbreaks and increase the spread of disease. Thus, the importance of climate-

informed integrated pest management (IPM) systems that involve predictive climate

models, pheromone monitoring and digital surveillance systems is growing.

Climate variability also increases soil degradation by salinizing soils, reducing soil organic

matter, leading to nutrient depletion and reducing soil water holding capacity (Wu et al.,

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2025). The salinity stress is emerging as a serious problem for cotton crop productivity

in Pakistan and affects the cotton crops in terms of reduction in water absorption, root

development and photosynthesis capacity of cotton. Conservation agriculture practices

and organic amendments and microbiome-based interventions are new emerging ways of

soil health restoration and stress resilience.

2.6 Impacts on Fiber Quality and Future Yield Projections

The cotton fiber quality traits such as fiber length, strength, fineness and uniformity are

extremely affected by environmental stresses during the reproductive and boll

development stages (Abro et al., 2023). The heat and drought stress cause disturbances in

cellulose deposition, fiber elongation, decrease tensile strength and decrease fiber

uniformity (Zafar et al., 2018). Too much humidity at boll maturity also lowers the

quality of the lint, by causing it to discolor and suffer microbial damage. These losses can

be reduced, to some extent, by balanced nutrient management and by optimizing irrigation

scheduling (Beegum et al., 2024).

Despite potential benefits of increasing the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, climate-crop

simulation models suggest productivity of cotton will be reduced in many climate regions

in the future. In Pakistan, cotton production can be reduced by as much as 20% under

extreme climate scenarios due to reproductive failure caused by heat and due to

evapotranspiration (Lio et al., 2016). Combined heat, drought and water-scarcity stress

are expected to cause similar reductions in India, Australia and the U.S. Yield losses can

reach up to 30% when the extreme condition of combined heat × drought is met (Sabagh

et al., 2020). The potential of AI-driven crop models, genomics and digital agriculture

tools to enhance the assessment of risks associated to climate conditions and the creation

of climate-resilient cotton production systems seems to be promising for future. Table 1

shows the major losses in yield and fibre quality reported in regions around the world

growing cotton due to climate change.

Table 1. Global Evidence of Climate-Induced Yield and Fiber Losses in Cotton

Yield/Fiber

Impact

Country/Region Climate Stress

Key Findings

Reference

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Heat

drought

+ 20–50% yield Reduced boll Han et al.,

Pakistan

China

loss

retention

2023

38%

lint Reduced fiber Chen et al.,

Drought

reduction

length

2019

12–18% lint

loss

Saleem et al.,

2023

Australia

India

Heatwaves

Heat + pests

Water scarcity

Floral sterility

15–22%

decline

Pest

intensification

Ul-Allah et al.,

2021

15%

yield Irrigation

Somaddar et

al., 2023

USA

reduction

limitation

3. Higher pest and disease pressure.

The biotic stress is significantly increasing due to climate change, which affects the

dynamics of pest populations, raises the disease burden and makes plants less resilient. An

increase in temperature, changes in rainfall pattern, increased duration of humidity and

change in seasonal conditions provide conducive conditions for insect outbreak and

transmission of viral diseases, especially in the South Asian region and Pakistan (Shahzad

et al., 2022). Climate stress also affects cotton physiology, which makes it more vulnerable

to herbivory and pathogen attack and affects the survival and reproduction of pests and

pathogens.

There is recent evidence that biotic stress is on the rise as one of the most critical factors

that limits sustainable cotton production, especially as a result of climate change. Warming

also drives the spread of pests globally, leads to higher pest numbers and increases the

speed of resistance evolution, which diminishes the efficacy of Bt technologies and

promotes secondary pest infestations. For this reason, a shift towards a more climate-

informed approach to pest and disease management will be more and more needed to

ensure cotton productivity in the future climate scenarios.

3.1 Accelerated Pest Invasions under Climatic Stress

Pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella), is one of the most damaging insect pests of

cotton fields of Pakistan. Pest incidence, abundance and infestation severity are

significantly affected by rising temperatures and changes in the precipitation regime

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(Shahzad et al., 2022). Warming effects can significantly elevate the level of pink

bollworm infestation (Hussain et al., 2023) and simulation studies suggest that warming

effects can significantly increase the level of pink bollworm infestation.Experimental

studies indicate that about 28 °C is optimum for the development and reproduction of

pink bollworm (Hussain et al., 2023), whereas simulation studies suggest that warming

effects can significantly increase the level of pink bollworm infestation. Longer diapause

periods are observed at low night temperatures while higher night temperatures lead to a

shorter duration of diapause and better overwinter survival, resulting in a higher number

of pest generations during the cropping period.

Pakistan's cotton agroecosystems are home to almost 145 insect pest species such as

bollworms, whiteflies, thrips and leafhoppers. The population explosion of pink bollworm

and sucking pests has been positively correlated with the rise of temperatures during the

autumn season (Shahzad et al., 2022). In recent years, green leafhopper (Amrasca biguttula

biguttula) infestations in South Asia also showed that high humidity and rainfall levels

could worsen infestations and result in significant crop losses (Azrag et al., 2025). Heat

and drought stress also compromise jasmonic acid and salicylic acid defense pathways,

thereby decreasing the plants natural resistance to herbivory and pathogen attack.

The results show that climate warming influences the abundance, geographical

distribution and resistance dynamics of pests and thus makes traditional pest management

more complicated. Therefore, IPM systems based on predictive climate analytics,

pheromone monitoring, remote sensing and digital surveillance platforms are becoming

increasingly relevant. Other approaches that are promising for enhancing cotton resilience

to climate-driven pest outbreaks include biotechnology-based strategies such as CRISPR-

mediated insect resistance, RNA interference (RNAi) and genomics-assisted resistance

breeding.

3.2 Cotton Disease Spread and Viral Losses

Cotton diseases, especially viruses, also are significantly affected by climatic factors. Of

these, Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCuV) is one of the most devastating diseases of cotton

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crops in South Asian countries and accounts for up to 30-35% yield loss in Pakistan

during an epidemic (Ali et al., 2019).

Whiteflies are the main vector of CLCuV, whose populations are greatly influenced by

high temperature and humidity. The effects of climate variability on vectors' capacity to

survive, reproduce and enhance their efficiency to transmit viruses increases the severity of

the disease. Warm winter weather can also exacerbate the survival of the whitefly and

increase the disease pressure during the growing season. In the coming few years, due to

climate variability, pest infestation and viral disease outbreaks, severe reductions in cotton

arrivals had been reported from Pakistan (Ali et al., 2019).

Additionally, the vulnerability of first-generation Bt cultivars and widespread adoption of

uncertified seed contribute to susceptibility to pests and diseases in the future under

changing climatic conditions (Ojdowska et al., 2025; Nagaraj et al., 2024). New

opportunities are opening up in viral disease management thanks to the recent progress in

genomics and biotechnology. CRISPR-based genome-editing technologies addressing

genes involved in host susceptibility and transcriptomic studies of host–virus interactions

are becoming promising technologies to enhance resistance against CLCuV and related

pathogens.

3.3 Pest resistance and management strategies

Pesticide overuse and climate variability are driving the rise of pest resistance in cotton

systems, especially in Pakistan (Nagaraj et al., 2024). Overuse of pesticides puts pressure

on pest populations to develop resistance and also disturbs ecology and decreases

beneficial insect populations. With warming temperatures, the rate of pest reproduction

increases and their life cycles shorten, further increasing the likelihood of the development

of resistance, which will limit the effectiveness of pest control measures over time.

An integrated approach to pest pressures (Integrated Pest Management, or IPM) is more

sustainable than others. IPM incorporates resistant cultivars, biological control, cultural

control, pheromone traps and judicious pesticide applications to reduce pest populations

and minimize ecological damage. The cultivars relatively resistant to the major sucking

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pests (CKC-6 and MNH-Shan) were identified in Pakistan and found to show better

yield stability in the presence of sucking pests (Ullah et al. 2025). Similarly, surveys further

report that numerous cotton farmers in Pakistan have encountered repeated infestations

by pests due to climate anomalies like heat waves, irregular rainfall and extended humid

conditions (Arshad et al., 2021).

A digital agriculture approach to monitoring and management, including the use of remote

sensing, AI-based pest monitoring and surveillance, predictive climate models and early-

warning systems, is gaining increasing momentum in modern IPM systems. Furthermore,

new biotechnology techniques, such as genomics-assisted resistance breeding, RNAi-

mediated pest suppression and engineering insect-resistance pathways using CRISPR, will

help ensure the sustainability and effectiveness of future cotton protection systems in the

face of climate change. The most significant expected changes in important cotton pests

and diseases in response to climate change are summarized in Table 2.

Table 2. Climate-Driven Pest and Disease Dynamics in Cotton Ecosystems

Major

Driver

Climate

Pest/Disease

Cotton Impact

References

Increased

Pink

(Pectinophora

gossypiella)

bollworm

Warmer

and mild winters

seasons generations, severe Hussain

et

al.

boll

damage, (2023)

reduced lint quality

Elevated

temperature

humidity

Increased

and transmission

viral

and Ali et al. (2019)

Whitefly (CLCuV

vector)

30–35% yield loss

Green

(Amrasca biguttula

biguttula)

leafhopper

Severe outbreaks

and 20–30% yield Azrag et al. (2025)

reduction

Increased

and humidity

rainfall

Reduced

effectiveness of Bt

cotton technologies

Pesticide

and warming

misuse

Nagaraj

(2024)

et

al.

Bt resistance

4. Extreme Events and Socio-Economic Impacts

The production of cotton is being impacted by various extreme events caused by changes

in climate globally, which have significant economic and socio-economic consequences,

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such as heatwaves, floods, monsoon variations and droughts (Arshad et al., 2021). Such

climatic events have a negative impact on the quality of the fiber and productivity of cotton

and have an impact on the entire value chain such as the ginning industries, textile

processing, export markets and rural livelihoods. Cotton cultivation is highly climate-

sensitive and has been severely impacted in Pakistan by frequent flooding, heat waves and

pest attacks, which have significantly lowered yields. Cotton yields are also lower, costs of

production have increased and profitability is a concern, which further jeopardizes farmer

livelihoods and market stability.

4.1 Economic Disruptions in Agriculture

Climate extremes are significant determinants of cotton production instability and have

significant economic impacts on agricultural economies (Arshad et al. 2021). The 2022

floods resulted in almost 40% of the cotton productivity reductions in the severely

affected parts of Pakistan while the overall cotton production reduced by around 41%

during 2022-2023 due to floods, pest attack and climatic variability (Schattman et al.,

2023; Mehmood et al., 2024). Other climate disasters have affected crops in the United

States and India. This disruption affects farm income, leads to instability of the textile

industry and adds to the production cost because of the increased demand for irrigation,

pesticides usage and replanting expenses. The smallholder farmers are especially at risk

due to their reduced access to adaptation technologies and financial resources. Crop

insurance schemes and technologies such as early-warning systems and stress-tolerant

cultivars created using molecular breeding and CRISPR-based technology could help

lower economic vulnerability in the face of climate change.

4.2 Social Vulnerability and Farmer Livelihoods

Climate-induced shocks have a significant impact on rural livelihood and social stability

in cotton growing communities (Arshad et al., 2021). Pakistan has almost 1.7 million

households directly engaged in cotton farming, which is crucial for their livelihoods and

employment (Mehmood et al., 2024). Farmers suffer from distress sale of farm assets,

getting into debt and loss of household resilience due to repeated exposure to the effects

of heatwaves, flooding, irregular rainfall and pest outbreaks (Ashraf and Iftikhar, 2013).

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Crops repeatedly fail, which also limits the availability of good seed, fertilizers, water

facilities and better technologies, thus perpetuating cycles of poverty and vulnerability.

Providing farmers with stress-tolerant cultivars produced with biotechnology, digital

agriculture platforms and climate-smart extension services can enhance their adaptation

and livelihood security in future climatic conditions.

4.3 Market Fluctuations and Supply-Chain Challenges

The direct impacts of climate variability on the market instability, price volatility and

disruptions in global cotton supply chains (Das et al., 2025). Unpredictability in the

availability of cotton because of climate change impacts is a reality for producers, traders,

textile industries and export markets. The impact of compound climatic events can also

be enhanced upon the disruption of global supply chains as was seen in the 2010 floods

in Pakistan and the 2010 Russian wildfires (Arshad et al., 2021). Production uncertainty

due to climate change is also making commodities more difficult to price and predict the

market. Thus, financial instruments, forecasting systems based on AI and predictive

models are increasingly being implemented to mitigate market risks and enhance supply-

chain resilience (Mitchell, 2028; Das et al., 2025). Moreover, yield stabilization via

biotechnology technologies that produce cotton crops that are more resilient to climate

change could also contribute to greater long-term supply security and economic

sustainability in the face of future climate variability and change. Figure 2 shows how

climate variability affects cotton production and supply-chain systems in cascading socio-

economic impacts.

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G. 2085

5. Regional Focus

5.1 Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) and Agroforestry Initiatives

Pakistan's cotton belt is facing climate-related stresses and Climate-Smart Agriculture

(CSA) is seen as a suitable adaptation measure (Zheng et al., 2024). CSA combines

sustainable agronomic approaches, efficient resource use and climate adaptation strategies

to boost productivity and resilience. Sowing drought resilient crops, agroforestry and laser

land leveling are contributing to better yields, water use efficiency and soil conservation in

semi-arid cotton areas. A CSA project in the town of Chakwal and Bhakkar has recorded

an almost 22% increase in yield, 45% reduction in water consumption and 60% reduction

in soil erosion (Rao and Moharaj, 2023).

Agroforestry systems also provide important environmental and socio-economic benefits.

Wind erosion and cotton productivity were decreased by tree planting projects in cotton

growing areas, which helped to control the microclimate, increase the soil organic carbon

content and conserve soil moisture (Fernandez et al., 2022). These nature-based

adaptations increase the adaptability to climate variability in the long-term (Mourad et al.,

2020). CSA systems will be even more effective with the integration of genomic selection

bred and genome edited stress-tolerant cultivars of cotton.

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G. 2085

5.2 Development of Resilient and Low-Input Cotton Varieties

Tolerant cotton cultivars for environmental stresses are increasingly important to ensure

cotton producers maintain productivity. In Pakistan, heat and drought-tolerant varieties

have been developed by institutions like NIAB and CCRI Multan which have improved

yield stability under adverse conditions (Shahzad et al., 2022). The increased yields

reported by farmers growing these improved varieties have ranged from around 20–40%.

Multi stress-tolerant cultivars development has been expedited by the recent improvement

realized by biotechnology such as marker-assisted selection (MAS), genomic selection,

GWAS and genome editing via CRISPR/Cas. Biochar, poultry manure and farmyard

manure application are also effective in enhancing soil fertility and cotton production

under climate stress (Ahmad et al., 2021). Moreover, the use of biofertilizers and plant

growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) leads to better nutrient uptake, root

development and tolerance to stress, which supports sustainability without relying on

excessive chemical inputs.

5.3 Information, Institutional Support and Farmer Capacity

To support farmer adaptation under climate variability, institutional support and access

to agricultural information are key (Ahmed et al., 2019). The implementation of digital

agriculture interventions like the Digital Dera program in South Punjab has allowed

farmers to receive weather forecasts, pest alerts, irrigation advice and real-time agronomic

data, thus enhancing their ability to make informed decisions about their crops (Mehmood

et al., 2024).

But, constraints on credit facilities, certified seed, irrigation facilities, crop insurance and

extension services persist and limit the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers (Khan et

al., 2020). Enhancing the capabilities of the agricultural extension systems, farmer

awareness programmes and conservation agriculture practices is therefore necessary

(Mourad et al., 2020). By combining genomic information with digital advisory tools,

adoption of climate-smart cultivars and precision-agriculture technologies may be further

facilitated in the future under climate scenarios.

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G. 2085

6. Approaches to Adaptation and Mitigation

6.1 Climate-Smart and Regenerative Agricultural Practices

Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) offers a promising approach to enhance cotton

resilience under elevated climate risks by implementing water-smart irrigation, precision

nutrient management and integrated pest management (IPM) practices (Farah et al.,

2025). Deficit irrigation and regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) systems have the potential

to reduce water availability while maintaining cotton productivity and simultaneously

increasing water-use efficiency (WUE) (Zheng et al., 2024).

In cotton-based systems, regenerative agriculture techniques like intercropping,

agroforestry, cover cropping and organic amendment enhance soil structure, microbial

activity, carbon sequestration and water retention (Scholar et al., 2023). These practices

also help in lowering the input costs and enhance the farm resilience to climatic shocks

(Rao and Moharaj, 2023). Genomic selection and CRISPR-based technologies for

developing stress-tolerant cultivars can further bolster CSA systems in future climate

scenarios.

6.2 Enhance Soil Health and Water-use Efficiency

Cotton production systems need to be resilient to climate change and soil health

management plays a critical role in achieving this goal. Incorporating no-till, residue

retention, cover cropping and soil organic carbon (SOC) into practice can enhance water

infiltration, water holding capacity and soil stability during drought and extreme rainfall

(Nouri et al., 2021). The improved SOC also contributes to the stability and activity of

the rhizosphere, which protects the physiological processes under stress.

Root-system architecture is another adaptation characteristic since greater access to soil

water and drought tolerance are achieved with deeper and larger root system (Giband and

Kranthi, 2023). More and more traits related to root development, osmotic adjustment

and stress-responsive gene expression are under focus via marker-assisted selection,

genomic selection and CRISPR/Cas genome editing. Beneficial rhizosphere

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G. 2085

microorganisms and microbiome engineering also have potential application to enhance

nutrient-use efficiency and stress tolerance in degraded soils.

6.3 Digital Innovations, Citizen Science and Policy Support

Digital agriculture technologies such as artificial intelligence-based platforms, Internet of

Things (IoT) based monitoring systems, remote sensing and predictive climate analytics

are revolutionizing the way climate adaptation is being worked out in cotton production

systems (Alreshidi, 2019). These tools facilitate real-time weather forecasting, scheduling

of irrigation and tracking of pests and climate risks, enhancing precision agriculture and

climate-informed decision-making (Farah et al., 2025).

Such participatory methods as tricot trials promote farmer–researcher partnership and

promote the adoption of climate-smart cultivars (Mourad et al., 2020). Moreover, policy

measures, extension programs and financial support are also crucial for scaling up CSA

practices and enhancing farmer adaptation. Digital infrastructure, Biotechnology research,

certified seed systems and extension services to promote climate-resilient farming will play

critical roles in maintaining cotton productivity in the future. The incorporation of

genomic and environmental data into crop models driven by AI can potentially be used to

enhance site-specific adaptation and precision-management strategies. The key adaptation

and mitigation strategies for cotton production systems to remain climate resilient are

summarized in Table 3.

Table 3. Climate-Smart Agriculture and Adaptation Strategies for Cotton Production

Major

Approach

Biotechnology

Link

Strategy

Climate Benefit

Reference

Ahmed

Schmitz

(2011)

and

Deficit

irrigation

Water-saving

irrigation

Improved

WUE

Stress-tolerant

cultivars

Reduced

canopy

temperature

Climate-

resilient

genotypes

Tree

integration

Luqman et al.

(2025)

Agroforestry

CRISPR

breeding

Multi-stress

tolerance

Genome

editing

Nagaraj et al.

(2024)

Gene editing

AI + IoT

Digital

agriculture

Early warning Predictive

systems genomics

Farah et al.

(2025)

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G. 2085

7. Future Directions

There is a need for a more integrated approach to developing cotton-production systems

resilient to climate change, which includes genetics and biotechnology, agronomy, digital

agriculture, pest management and policies. Further studies should take a systems level

approach and multi-stress approach to better mimic field conditions under climate

variability.

7.1 Developing Multi-Stress Resilience through Breeding

Breeding efforts should focus on cultivars that are heat, drought, salinity, waterlogging

and pest resistant, but also have good yield and fiber quality. Stress-tolerance traits could

be introduced into elite cotton cultivars at an earlier rate through marker-assisted selection

and/or genomic selection. The wild Gossypium species can also serve as valuable genetic

resources for the identification of adaptive alleles associated with climate resilience. The

combination of genomics, transcriptomics and metabolomics could further complement

the identification of multi-stress tolerance trait (Luqman et al., 2025).

7.2 Utilization of Genome Editing Technologies

The genome-editing technologies, especially CRISPR-Cas9, offer an excellent toolset to

make specific modification in stress-responsive genes of cotton. These technologies can

be used to develop heat- and drought-tolerant crops by targeting genes for heat tolerance,

antioxidant defense, osmoprotectant accumulation and drought-responsiveness. In

addition, new technologies like base editing and prime editing are also being employed in

the development of cotton cultivars that are more resistant to climate change without the

addition of foreign DNA (Luqman et al., 2025).

The use of genome editing also has the potential to enhance resistance to viral diseases

and insect pests by altering host susceptibility genes or defense-related pathways. In Figure

3, a schematic overview of the editing of stress-responsive pathways related to ROS

scavenging, osmoprotectant biosynthesis and transcriptional control is shown.

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G. 2085

Based on the information provided in Figure 3, the major cotton stress tolerance targets

of CRISPR-Cas9 should include heat-shock proteins (HSPs), antioxidant enzymes like

SOD, CAT, osmoprotectants such as proline, glycine betaine and regulatory transcription

factors of abiotic stress adaptation.

7.3 Omics-Guided Trait Discovery

The transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics and phenomics approaches can be of great

value to identify genes, proteins, metabolites and regulatory pathways involved in tolerance

to heat, drought, salinity, waterlogging and pest pressure. Machine learning will be used

to integrate various omic data sets and enhance prediction of traits which will aid in

developing climate-resistant cotton cultivars (Luqman et al., 2025).

7.4 Field-Level Climate-Smart Agronomic Practices

Climate-smart agronomic practices, including reduced tillage, residue management, cover

cropping, organic inputs and irrigation water use efficiency are critical to enhancing soil

fertility, water holding capacity and climate stress resilience. It is also recommended that

cotton productivity be enhanced under adverse environmental conditions through

integrated nutrient management with the application of biochar, poultry manure and

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G. 2085

balanced fertilizers (Ahmad et al., 2021). These cultural practices, in combination with

the stress tolerant cultivars, can improve long-term productivity and sustainability.

7.5 Digital Agriculture for Adaptive Management

AI, IoT, remote sensing and mobilized advisory systems are some digital technologies that

can aid in making real-time decisions based on the climate information used in cotton

production (Alreshidi, 2019). Tricot trials and other participatory methods can speed up

the speed of uptake of climate-smart varieties and enhance farmers' involvement in

adaptation measures (Mourad et al., 2020). The use of digital tools along with site-

specific genomic and environmental data can help inform site-specific varietal

recommendations and precision management.

7.6 Institutional Support Systems

To build smallholder resilience to climate variability, institutional support such as

subsidies, crop insurance, certified seeds distribution, extension services and farmer

training programmes will be critical (Ahmed et al., 2019). Improving public–private

partnerships and extension networks can help speed up the uptake of innovation and

climate-smart agriculture practices through biotechnology (Misra et al., 2023).

7.7 Climate-Informed Integrated Pest Management

To incorporate resistant cultivars, biological control, pheromone monitoring and a

climate-based pest forecasting system into future pest-management strategies (Ullah et al.,

2025). Under changing climatic conditions, there is potential for resistance management

and avoidance of pesticide and Bt resistance through availability of predictive surveillance

systems and genomic monitoring of pest populations (Nagaraj et al., 2024).

7.8 Climate-Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research

An interdisciplinary research approach that includes genetics, biotechnology, agronomy,

climatology, soil science, pest ecology and socio-economics must be taken up in future

research. Crop modeling and experimental research ought to increasingly consider

compound stresses, like heat × drought and drought × salinity, as a way to better develop

adaptation strategies at the regional level (Das et al., 2025).

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G. 2085

7.9 Regional and global cooperation

Regional and international partnerships will play a vital role in enhancing climate resilience

of cotton systems. There are collaborative networks that can help with germplasm

exchange, sharing of climate data, pest surveillance, biotechnology research and policy

coordination. Increased collaboration between cotton-growing regions could help to speed

up the progress of cultivating climate-resilient cultivars and adaptation strategies in the

future climate scenario (Khan et al., 2025).

8. Conclusion

Climate change is a serious threat to the production of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.)

which is very important for the rural livelihoods and textile industries in developing

countries including Pakistan. Temperatures, drought, floods, salt and pest infestation all

contribute to the diminishing cotton growth, yield and fiber quality with the growing

temperatures and alteration in climate.With the increasing temperature and changing

climate, cotton growth, yield and fiber quality are becoming a problem due to rising

temperatures, drought, flooding, salinity and pest outbreak. Flooding and soil degradation

also decrease productivity and heat and drought stress affect photosynthesis, reproductive

growth and fibre development. The increased pressure from pest and disease due to

climate warming also poses a threat to the sustainability of cotton-based production

system.

Another important socio-economic aspect is that the socio-economic

vulnerability of farmers and market price fluctuations are greater due to yield fluctuations,

growing expenses and climate-induced crop failures. Integrated climate-resilient

production systems that integrate CRISPR-based genome editing, omics-guided breeding,

genomic selection, climate-smart agriculture, digital decision-support tools, integrated

pest management and supportive policy frameworks are needed to address the challenges.

Under future climate uncertainty, stress-tolerant cultivars, efficient resource management,

farmer-centered innovation and greater institutional and global cooperation will be the

key elements for achieving long-term sustainability of cotton production.

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