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Global Research journal of Natural Science  
& Technology (GRJNST)  
Volume: 04 - Issue 2 (2026), 2057  
ISSN P: 2790-7643 ISSN E: 2790-7651  
www.grjnst.net  
https://doi.org/10.53762/grjnst.04.02.09  
Impact of Climate Change (CC) on Guava (Psidium guajava L.) Phenology, Yield  
and Commercial Fruit Quality; Prospective Policy  
Received: 31 December 2025. Accepted: 04 February 2026. Published: 2 April 2026  
Bilal Ahmed Awan  
Plant Tissue Culture Cell, Institute of Horticultural Sciences,  
University of Agriculture Faisalabad Pakistan  
bilal.awan@uaf.edu.pk  
Muhammad Usman  
Plant Tissue Culture Cell, Institute of Horticultural Sciences,  
University of Agriculture Faisalabad Pakistan  
m.usman@uaf.edu.pk  
Bilquees Fatima  
Plant Tissue Culture Cell, Institute of Horticultural Sciences,  
University of Agriculture Faisalabad Pakistan  
dr.fatimausman@uaf.edu.pk  
Hasham Feroz Ghuman  
Centre of Agricultural Biochemistry and Biotechnology (CABB),  
University of Agriculture Faisalabad Pakistan  
Hasham.feroz@uaf.edu.pk  
Bushra Rashid  
Centre of Excellence in Molecular Biology (CEMB),  
University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan  
bushra.cemb@pu.edu.pk  
Faisal Saeed Awan  
Centre of Agricultural Biochemistry and Biotechnology (CABB),  
University of Agriculture Faisalabad Pakistan.  
Faisal.saeed@uaf.edu.pk  
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Article ID: 2057  
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Copyright © 2026 GRJNST. This article is published under an Open Access model. It is made available to the public under the terms of the Creative  
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Abstract: It has been observed that the climate is changing from last few couple  
of years. One of the many negative consequences of climate change is the  
alteration of the natural vegetation and environment. Phenology, or the shifting  
timing of plant growth activity, is one of the most well-documented consequences  
of climate change. Climate change is causing changes in the length of the  
vegetative and reproductive phases. By shortening the vegetative period, warmer  
temperatures often reduced the number of days needed for flowering in the  
rd  
majority of fruit crops. Guava (Psidium guajava L.) commercially 3 fruit crop  
of significant economic importance in Pakistan and high nutritional potential, yet  
its production faces severe challenges during last two decades due to climate  
change overall globally and more frequently in South East Asian (SEA) countries.  
This comprehensive effort highlight and examines the climate change (CC)  
impact on Guava phen-phases, crop improvement and overall fruit quality  
parameters, highlighting disruptions caused by rising temperatures, altered  
precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events such  
as long summer season span, droughts and heavy rainfall during monsoon  
weather. These changes affect critical physiological processes, including  
flowering, fruit setting, fruit growth and maturation leading to irregular bearing,  
reduced yields, and compromised fruit quality such as, size, color and sweetness.  
Climate-induced biotic stressors exacerbate pest and disease pressures, further  
threatening commercial production. adaptation and mitigation precision  
horticulture strategies, including improved irrigation systems, canopy  
management techniques during high density plantation and efficient use of  
micronutrients like zinc and boron, are practical solutions to enhance resilience.  
the paper also explores future perspectives, emphasizing precision horticulture  
and supportive policy frameworks to ensure sustainable guava production. by  
integrating advanced technologies, resilient cultivars and innovative pomological  
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practices, this study underscores potential to mitigate impact of climate change  
(CC) for secure guava production.  
Keywords: Guava, Climate Change, Phenology, Fruit Setting, Mitigation Strategies.  
Introduction  
Throughout Earth's history, the planet's climate has experienced several changes,  
from ice ages to warm eras. Agriculture was one of the first industries to be examined the  
climate change (CC) effects because of its vital role in human existence (Adams et al.,  
1990; Ahmed et al., 2025; Scorzini et al., 2026). Many crop models and evaluation  
strategies have been created recently for important horticultural crops, such as fruit crops  
(Chmielewski et al., 2004; Chawla et al., 2011; Fischer et al., 2016; Haokip et al., 2020;  
Karagatiya et al., 2023), offering predictions related to crop yield.  
The capacity of reflected infrared radiation in the atmosphere is increased by  
increased greenhouse gas emissions, which eventually raises the temperature of the surface-  
troposphere system. According to NASA data from October 2020, atmospheric CO2  
concentrations just reached a record of 415ppm after quickly increasing to 400ppm in  
2014. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found that between 1906  
and 2005, the global air temperature rose by 0.74°C (Donato et al., 2014). An increase  
of 0.5°C to 1.2°C by 2020, 0.88 to 3.16°C by 2050, and 1.56 to 5.44°C by 2080 is  
predicted (Scorzini et al., 2026).  
According to projections, the global temperature might rise by up to 6°C by the  
year 2100, and the CO2 concentration could rise by 550 to 850 parts per million during  
that same time. The average worldwide air temperature may increase by 1.4°C to 6.4°C  
by the end of this century. Climate change (CC) is undoubtedly the biggest issue facing  
the commercial fruit sector today and will require immediate attention in the years to  
come. The average worldwide air temperature may increase by 1.4°C to 6.4°C by the end  
of this century (IPCC 2014a; Ahmed et al., 2026).  
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Fig. 1 Thermal time model for growth of perennial fruit crops  
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Variations in air temperature were noticeable, with typical viticulture zones in  
various regions of Europe experiencing a rise of 2 to 5°C (Christensen et al. 2007).  
Climate projections for the 21st century indicate that the average global temperature will  
increase in a range of ways, from stabilizing at 1.5°C during the current reference period  
to increasing by almost 4°C (IPCC 2014b). The emission of greenhouse gases, among  
which CO2 is more significant in terms of both volume and impact, has been the main  
driver of the temperature increase (IPCC 2014b). From 280/μL L-1 (preindustrial) to  
above 400/μL L-1 in 2016, atmospheric CO2 levels are expected to rise rapidly to 421–  
936/μL L-1 by the end of the century (Meinshausen et al. 2011). Rainfall has also  
decreased in important viticultural regions, particularly in Southern Europe (IPCC 2014a;  
Christensen et al., 2007), and it is anticipated that this decline will persist in the future  
(Assad et al., 2004). Extreme droughts, floods, and heatwaves are expected to occur more  
frequently as temperatures rise. Climate change has three different effects on agriculture:  
direct, indirect, and socioeconomic (Kim et al., 2009).  
According to the IPCC SRES-A2 scenario, temperatures are predicted to rise by  
3.4°C and CO2 concentrations to reach 1250 ppm by 2095. This might be followed by  
more extreme weather events and climate variability (Ashraf et al., 2025). New problems  
including urbanization, water scarcity, soil and water contamination, and global climate  
change make this complex scenario worse (Pachauri et al., 2007; Kumar et al., 2019).  
When combined with higher temperatures, less precipitation may result in less irrigation  
and more evapotranspiration, which might put many crops under water stress (Datta et  
al., 2013; Yadav et al., 2023).  
Guava (Psidium guajava L.) is an important crop having both commercial and  
nutritional significance throughout the tropics and subtropics. Moreover, it is the third  
most important fruit crop in Pakistan. It is the greatest choice in terms of taste and  
additional nutritional benefits (Riaz et al., 2025; Usman et al., 2020), as high demand in  
both local and international markets (Ahmad et al., 2018; Antwi-Boasiako et al., 2024).  
Fresh Guava and its value-added items are exported by farmers, who profit greatly from  
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fruit products. Guava is therefore an important crop that offers them two cropping  
patterns annually and huge socioeconomic benefits (Normand et al., 2015; Usman et al.,  
2021).  
Timely blossoming and maximum fruiting of guava trees, which are essential for  
yield, can be hampered by shifting weather patterns like heat and rain. Low temperatures  
have been found to be crucial for guava flowering in subtropical environments. But other  
stressors, including a lack of water, might negatively impact fruit set and retention (Table.  
1) (Luo et al., 2019). Climate change may result in phenological mismatches, which will  
impact flowering and fruiting at irregular periods and increase their susceptibility to pests  
and diseases. Unfavorable weather patterns might lead to less consistent fruit quality and  
maturity during harvest, creating additional difficulties for market delivery and customer  
satisfaction (Boudon et al., 2020).  
It is anticipated that the vegetative and reproductive growth of guava trees will be  
impacted by increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), soil salinity, and reduced and  
erratic rainfall (Normand et al., 2015; Jan et al., 2025). Difficulties during dry and rainy  
spells can be overcome by better cultivation techniques and nutrient management, such as  
applying zinc and boron to the soil together. Guava tree productivity and physiological  
quality responses can be somewhat improved by such practices.  
Additionally, they improve fruit quality, retention and set (Ahmad et al., 2018).  
Additionally, creating a guava crop model through study can help comprehend these  
altering effects on guava phenology and find ways to adjust commercial guava production  
to changing climate scenarios (Normand et al., 2015). Guava is a significant crop, but its  
stability and production in the face of climate change will depend on a few focused  
agricultural measures as well as our growing knowledge through research.  
Climate Change (CC) Impact on Guava Phenology  
Climate change has an impact on the guava's (Psidium guajava L.) blooming time,  
fruit set, and irregular bearing. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and a  
rise in the frequency of extreme weather events are all effects of climate change on guava  
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production (Normand et al., 2015). Guava flowering is influenced by two environmental  
factors: temperature and humidity. Timing of pheno-indicators can be disrupted by  
climatic changes, leading to variations in flowering. The intricate process of guava  
flowering depends on a number of variables, including water availability and temperature.  
While the age of the final flush of growth is crucial in tropical climates, low temperatures  
have a significant effect in inducing flowering in subtropical climates (Luo et al., 2019;  
Jan et al., 2025).  
If temperatures keep increasing across the globe, then low-temperature cues that  
enable flowering may decline. As a result of flowering could delay or disrupt (Khalifa and  
Abobatta, 2023; Luo et al., 2019). The changes in climate may affect the availability and  
balance of resources necessary for fruit set such as, non-structural carbohydrates. Guava’s  
starch and sugar contents are directly influenced by its photosynthesis and starch  
distribution. Changes in climate can alter the amount of carbohydrates available for trees,  
then affects fruit set and may lead to a reduction in fruit Guava trees are known for  
periodic flowering and irregular bearing, which makes it worse by climate vagaries,  
adopting a regional product approach (Jan et al., 2025).  
By increasing temperatures and rainfall variability, the phenological disparities can  
happen. For example, flowering and fruiting may not coincide, which causes variability  
in fruit production from season to season as shown in (Table. 1) (Normand et al., 2015).  
Furthermore, stress from extreme climate events like drought and heavy rain prevent  
adversely impact the health and productivity of the trees (Khalifa and Abobatta, 2023;  
Jan et al., 2025). Adaptive measures such as breeding for climate-resilient varieties and  
adjustment in cultural practices are important to mitigate them. You may choose the  
cultivars that are a good fit for climatic stresses and specify agricultural practices to  
improve water and soil management (Khalifa and Abobatta, 2023). Long-term strategies,  
on the other hand, concentrate on better understanding and predicting the phenological  
occurrences that are altered by climate change. Improving farm management as a buffer  
against variability would be one of the more workable and immediate answers (Yadav et  
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al., 2023).  
Fig. 2 Abiotic-Stress Effects on Guava Fruit Production  
Table 1. Climate change (CC) Impacts on Guava Phenology, Yield and Fruit Quality  
Sr.  
Chronological research work on guava  
References  
No.  
1.  
Long Short-Term Memory Model for Guava Yield  
Prediction Using Harris Hawks Optimization  
Integrated Nutrient Management Techniques Boost Fruit  
Yield and Quality in a Sustainable Guava (Psidium guajava  
L.) System of Production  
Khedr et al., 2026  
Nodal et al., 2026  
2.  
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3.  
4.  
Development of Nondestructive Technology for Guava  
Ripeness Assessment (Psidium guajava L.)  
Effects of Branch Bending on the Production and Fruit  
Quality of Different Guavas (Psidium guajava L.) Different  
Types  
Kundu et al., 2026  
Kumar et al., 2025  
5.  
Pruning practices affect guava flowering, fruiting, yield, and Gomasta et al.,  
fruit biochemical characteristics in subtropical climates.  
Flower regulation in guava and pomegranate  
Effective guava cultivar clonal multiplication using tiny  
softwood cuttings  
2024  
6.  
7.  
Sachin et al., 2024  
Awan et al., 2024  
8.  
9.  
Various guava genotypes' flowering, fruiting patterns, and  
nutritional value  
Bose, 2022  
The morphological, physiological, biochemical, and  
molecular responses of guava (Psidium guajava L.) cultivars  
to drought stress  
Usman et al., 2022  
10. Seasonal and genetic variations in guava fruit quality and  
their breeding consequences  
Usman et al., 2021  
11. Research on the "Crystal" guava's (Psidium guajava L.)  
flowering and fruiting cycles in three distinct Indonesian  
sites  
Widyastuti et al.,  
2019  
12. Physiological research on guava tree fruits and flowering  
13. Intercropping: A strategy to lower fruit drop and enhance  
guava fruit quality  
Singer et al., 2017  
Singh et al., 2016  
14. Pruning in guava (Psidium guajava L.) and assessing the  
flowering phenology that results using a modified BBCH  
scale  
Singh et al., 2015  
15. Effects of pruning duration and intensity on guava  
production, quality, flowering, and vegetative growth  
Adhikari et al.,  
2015  
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16. Studies on how different pre-harvest methods affect the  
development and quality of guava fruit  
Ali et al., 2014  
17. Defoliation and de-flowering have an impact on the fruit  
quality of guava (Psidium guajava L.) cv. Gola  
Khan et al., 2013  
18. Guava CVs. fruiting, yield, and fruit quality as influenced by Kumar et al., 2008  
N, P, and K Pant Prabhat  
19. Fruit quality of guavas (Psidium guajava L.) in relation to  
Singh and Singh,  
2001  
the date of pruning  
20. New guava variety development, blooming, and fruiting  
patterns  
Menzel and Paxton,  
1986  
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Climate change (CC) Impact on Guava Fruit Quality:  
Common bushy fruit plant known as guava (Psidium guajava L.) is grown in  
Pakistan and other tropical and subtropical areas of the world. A highly nutraceutical fruit  
crop, guavas are high in pectin, carotenoids, calcium, vitamin A, and ascorbic acid (three  
to five times more than citrus) (Usman et al., 2022; Usman et al., 2020). Pakistan now  
produces 0.79 million tons of fresh guava on 53.85 thousand hectares of land (Fruit,  
Vegetables and Condiments Statistics of Pakistan, 2023-24). After citrus and mango,  
guava is the third most popular fruit crop in Pakistan. Despite rising fruit output and  
guava yield per hectare (8 tons/ha to 14.5 tons/ha), Pakistan is currently the world's  
fourth-largest guava grower, after China, Indonesia, and India. Improved planting density,  
cultural methods, and varietal shifts, such as Chinese Gola, may be responsible for the  
increased yield and productivity. Other factors affecting yield and quality include seedling-  
based industry, lack of certified nursery (Riaz et al., 2025; Awan et al., 2024).  
Fruit crops and climate change (CC) are related because global climate change is  
primarily responsible for many of the factors that have a detrimental effect on commercial  
production. Rising temperatures, drought or water stress, changing climate zones, erratic  
rainfall patterns, and insect pest outbreaks are the primary causes of climate change. Fruit  
crops are expected to be more affected by climate change than perennials since short-  
duration crops are frequently better able to adapt. Among the ways that climate change  
affects fruit crops at different phases of growth and development are fruit sunburn,  
inadequate pollination, delayed ripening, reduced color development, low sugar content,  
poor fruit quality and set, and decreased fruit yield. The constantly changing climate has  
a significant impact on perennial crops in the agriculture and horticultural industries,  
particularly the fruit business. In 2024, Punjab province provided 66% of mangoes, 34%  
of dates, 82% of guavas, and more than 90% of citrus fruits to the country's overall fruit  
production due to the hot months of May and June being followed by substantial rainfall  
in July and August (www.agripunjab.gov.pk).  
Guava's size, color, sweetness, and postharvest quality are all impacted by climate  
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change for a variety of reasons. Variations in temperature, light, and water availability have  
a major role in determining these fruit characteristics. Guavas develop to a size that is  
mostly dependent on the resources available to them, namely water and nutrients. Water  
stress will result from rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall due to climate change.  
Fruit size and general quality characteristics in relation to the environment will be affected.  
(Table. 2).  
Furthermore, as seen in Figure 2, higher temperatures may accelerate growth  
processes, leading to smaller fruit (Antwi Boasiako et al., 2024; Léchaudel and Joas, 2007;  
Jan et al., 2025). Fruit Temperature and light have an impact on color development. Fruits  
may have uneven coloring due to changes in these elements brought on by climate change.  
Higher temperatures may increase the activity of the enzymes that produce pigments,  
which could result in improved color but also early ripening and other issues (Yadav et  
al., 2023).  
Guava fruit's flavor is mostly determined by how sugars are produced and stored  
as the fruit ripens. Temperature increases in particular have an impact on the metabolism  
of carbohydrates, which in turn affects sweetness (Datir and Regan, 2022; Romero et al.,  
2021). A certain amount of sugar buildup may be increased by warmer temperatures, but  
too much heat may impede metabolic activities. Physiological issues may have an impact  
on the quality of picked, ripe fruit. They are brought on by seasonal environmental stress.  
Fruit appearance, texture, and flavor can be negatively impacted by storage conditions such  
as damage and uneven ripening. Climate conditions have been stressing harvested fruit,  
which may increase post-harvest losses and shorten their shelf life, necessitating the use of  
cutting-edge postharvest equipment (Bambalele et al., 2021; Ullah et al., 2024).  
Climate change (CC) Impact on Guava yield  
One of the major fruits mostly susceptible to climate change commercial guava  
(Psidium guajava L.), Climate Change may have detrimental effects on the fruit's  
physiological and developmental processes. Guava yield is decreased in the following ways  
by rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and drought conditions. Higher  
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temperatures during flowering fruit set and fruit growth may have a detrimental effect on  
commercial fruit output. Fruit and blossoms may drop as a result of this extreme heat  
stress, significantly reducing yield. Additionally, it can change the fruit's quality, affecting  
its nutritional content, texture, and flavor (Antwi-Boasiako et al., 2024; Normand et al.,  
2015; Jan et al., 2025).  
Guava trees suffer from drought and water constraint because they require a specific  
amount of water during their growth cycle. Droughts, which are occurring more frequently  
due to climate change, can cause water stress. The lower fruit production is due to less  
photosynthesis and vegetative growth. because it increases the chance of fruit drop and  
decreases the overall fruit set. An inadequate water supply during the flowering and fruit-  
setting stages is especially harmful (Normand et al., 2015).  
Insufficient rainfall hinders the uptake of nutrients, resulting in water deficiencies  
that can lead to stressful conditions that reduce fruit output and quality. Mango trees  
depend on timely and balanced rainfall, which is becoming more erratic due to climate  
change (Antwi-Boasiako et al., 2024; Normand et al., 2015). Climate factors like  
temperature and precipitation have an impact on the photosynthesis and nutrient uptake  
processes of guava trees during active growth periods. Heat and water stress can reduce  
chlorophyll efficiency and content. As a result, atmospheric photosynthetic processes may  
become less efficient. Consequently, less energy is generated, which limits fruit production  
and growth and reduces yield overall (Normand et al., 2015; Jan et al., 2025).  
Future Perspectives  
Tools like precision horticulture, climate-smart techniques, and legislative actions  
may help mitigate the harmful effects of climate change on guava production. Together,  
they improve guava orcharding's sustainability, resilience, and productivity. In order to  
effectively analyze Horticultural operations, precision horticulture uses mobile platforms,  
data analysis, remote sensing, and more. These days, farms use smart technology, which  
are gadgets that give farmers the quick information they require. Precision horticulture,  
which includes site-specific nutrient management, precise water management, and plant  
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health monitoring using nano-biosensors that can identify biotic and abiotic challenges  
before they negatively impact production, used for the commercial guava production  
(Miguel-Rojas and Pérez-De Luque, 2023).  
Climate-Smart Horticulture (CSH) refers to sustainable farming methods that  
boost resilience, reduce emissions, and increase productivity. Crop diversification,  
conservation agriculture, and the use of agroforestry are among techniques that guarantee  
consistent yields and improve resilience. Strategies for CSH have been devised, according  
to Safdar et al. (2024) and Bhanuwanti et al. (2024). For example, guava varieties that are  
drought and disease resistant were created. Enhancing soil fertility and irrigation  
effectiveness are two more examples. In addition to increasing mango crop output, it helps  
lower hazards associated with climate change.  
Conclusion  
Climate change may have a major effect on guava trees (CC). Climate change has  
made guava trees more vulnerable to environmental stressors such as drought, intense  
weather, increased temperatures, and erratic rainfall patterns. Changes in temperature and  
precipitation can interfere with the growth and fruiting cycles of guava trees. This could  
have an impact on the phenology, yield, and quality of the fruit. Rising temperatures and  
more frequent heatwaves may make it more difficult for trees to produce food and carry  
out other growth phases. Despite the shifting climate, productivity must be maintained,  
adjusting measures should be used in response to temperature increases. Water scarcity  
and soil salt buildup due to climate change are exacerbating an already dire scenario.  
Socioeconomic issues are also becoming more prevalent. Guava quality and productivity  
are also being impacted. Development of a guava crop model and modifications to cultural  
practices may offer crucial information for adaptation strategy. The sustainability of guava  
production and the consequences of climate change can also be addressed by research  
initiatives on AI-assisted sustainable fruit farming and new IoT technologies.  
Acknowledgments:  
Authors are highly grateful to the Pakistan Science foundation (PSF) Islamabad  
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for research funding under project grant PSF/NSLP/P-UAF (822) “  
Establishing  
phenological and genetic responses to seasonal shifts in guava (Psidium guajava L.)  
germplasm”.  
References:  
Adams R.M, Rosenzweig, C., Peart McRitchie, J.T., McCarl, B.A., Glyer, J.D., Curry,  
R.B., Jones, J.W., Boote, J.K. & Allen Jr, L.H. (1990). Global climate change and  
US agriculture. Nature.;345(6272): 219-224.  
Adhikari, S. & Kandel, T.P., (2015). Effect of time and level of pruning on vegetative  
growth, flowering, yield, and quality of guava. International Journal of Fruit  
Science, 15(3), pp.290-301.  
Adrees, M., Younis, M., Farooq, U. & Hussain, K. (2010). Nutritional quality evaluation  
of different guava varieties. Pak. J. Agri. Sci, 47(1), pp.1-4.  
Ahmad, I., Bibi, F., Ullah, H., & Munir, T.M. (2018). Mango fruit yield and critical  
quality parameters respond to foliar and soil applications of zinc and boron.  
Plants, 7(4), 97.  
Ahmed, M., Awan, B.A., Zaman, B.U., Bakhsh, K., Sohail, M., Rafeeque, A., Afzal, H.,  
Ali, A. and Razzaque, A. (2026). Impact of Climate Change on Mango (Mangifera  
indica L.), Phenology, Yield, and Quality. Global Research Journal of Natural  
Science and Technology.  
Ali, F.S. (2014). Studies of some pre harvest treatments on growth and fruit quality of  
guava fruits. J. Agri. Veterinary Sci, 7(12), pp.12-21.  
Angulo-López, J.E., Flores-Gallegos, A.C., Torres-León, C., Ramírez-Guzmán, K.N.,  
Martínez, G.A. & Aguilar, C.N. (2021). Guava (Psidium guajava L.) fruit and  
valorization of industrialization by-products. Processes, 9(6), p.1075.  
Antwi-Boasiako, A., Amponsah, P., Opoku, J. A., Coulibaly, D. & Mintah, P. (2024).  
Increasing mango production efficiency under the fast-changing climate. In Abiotic  
Stress  
in  
Crop  
Plants  
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